South African motorists could be facing another sharp increase in fuel prices in October, with the latest figures pointing to petrol moving closer to R30 a litre and diesel potentially rising above R33 a litre inland.
The latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, published on 21 September, shows that the expected October fuel price increases have grown compared with earlier estimates. Petrol 93 is currently showing a projected increase of R2.66 a litre, while 95 petrol is showing an increase of R2.83 a litre.
If these projections remain unchanged, the inland price of 93 petrol could increase from the current R26.76 a litre to about R29.42. For 95 petrol, the price could rise from R26.92 to approximately R29.75 a litre.
For motorists filling up regularly, that difference could quickly add up. A 50-litre tank of 95 petrol currently costs about R1,346 at the inland price. At a projected R29.75 a litre, the same tank would cost around R1,488, an increase of about R142 per fill-up.
Diesel motorists are also facing significant increases. The latest CEF figures indicate that 0.05% sulphur diesel could rise by about R2.61 a litre, while 0.005% sulphur diesel could increase by approximately R3.01 a litre.
That could take the inland wholesale price of 0.05% diesel from R29.11 to around R31.72 a litre. The 0.005% grade could increase from R30.05 to approximately R33.06 a litre.
The coastal picture is somewhat lower. The projected October price for 95 petrol at the coast is about R28.88 a litre, compared with the current R26.05. The projected coastal prices for 0.05% and 0.005% diesel are approximately R30.85 and R31.80 a litre respectively.
The projected increases are largely being driven by international petroleum product prices. The CEF data indicates that higher international prices, linked in part to tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed fuel-price recoveries deeper into negative territory. Movements in the rand have provided only a relatively small offset.
South African motorists are already paying more after the September fuel price adjustment. The current inland price is R26.76 a litre for 93 petrol and R26.92 for 95 petrol, while wholesale diesel is currently R29.11 for 0.05% and R30.05 for 0.005%.
However, the October numbers are still projections rather than confirmed prices. Oil prices and the rand can move during the remainder of September, meaning the final increase could be higher or lower than the current CEF estimates.
The official October fuel price adjustment is scheduled to take effect on 7 October. Until then, motorists will have to wait for the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources to announce the final prices.
For households already watching every rand at the petrol station, the possible move towards R30 a litre is significant. Higher fuel costs can also affect everyday travel and the cost of transporting goods, making the October fuel-price announcement one that motorists, commuters and businesses will be watching closely.
