South African motorists are expected to receive substantial relief at the pumps from Wednesday, 1 July, with petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin prices all set to decrease despite the return of the full General Fuel Levy.
According to the latest month-end fuel price data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), 95 unleaded petrol recorded an over-recovery of R3.03 per litre, while 93 unleaded petrol showed an over-recovery of R3.07 per litre. Diesel over-recoveries were even stronger, reaching R4.67 per litre for 500ppm diesel and R5.12 per litre for 50ppm diesel.
However, motorists will not receive the full benefit of those over-recoveries.
The temporary fuel levy relief introduced by the National Treasury earlier this year officially ends on 30 June. During June, motorists received a reduced General Fuel Levy of R2.60 per litre on petrol following a temporary R1.50 per litre tax relief. From 1 July, the levy returns to its full rate of R4.10 per litre, effectively adding R1.50 per litre back into the fuel price calculation. Diesel users will also see the final R1.96 per litre levy relief withdrawn.
Even after accounting for the reinstated levy, the expected decreases remain significant.
Current projections indicate:
- 95 Unleaded Petrol: decrease of approximately R1.53 per litre
- 93 Unleaded Petrol: decrease of approximately R1.57 per litre
- Diesel (500ppm): decrease of approximately R3.17 per litre
- Diesel (50ppm): decrease of approximately R3.62 per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: decrease of around R5.23 per litre
If these projections are reflected in the official adjustment, motorists in Gauteng could see the price of 95 unleaded petrol fall from R28.06 per litre to roughly R26.53 per litre, while coastal motorists could pay about R25.66 per litre, based on current retail prices. Inland 93 unleaded petrol could drop from R27.95 to approximately R26.38 per litre.
The anticipated reduction follows a sharp decline in international crude oil prices during June after tensions in the Middle East eased. A ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran helped calm global energy markets, allowing Brent crude prices to retreat after surging earlier this year. At the same time, the rand remained relatively stable against the US dollar, lowering the cost of importing refined fuel into South Africa. Together, these factors produced some of the largest fuel over-recoveries seen in recent months.
Industry analysts note that another factor that could further improve the final prices is the Slate Levy, which is currently set at R1.58 per litre. The levy is used to reimburse oil companies for previous under-recoveries. Should the government decide to reduce it because of improved market conditions, motorists could receive an even larger reduction than currently projected.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official fuel price adjustments before they take effect on Wednesday, 1 July. While the July decrease will offer much-needed relief to households, commuters, freight operators, and businesses facing elevated transport costs, analysts caution that the outlook for August remains uncertain. Renewed geopolitical tensions or a weaker rand could once again place pressure on fuel prices upward in the coming months.
